Editorial: Good News in 2015?
By Ed Downs
This writer thinks we will see an uptick in aviation activity in 2015, along with improved air show participation (by both vender and aviation enthusiast) and passage of important aviation regulations. Hopefully, we will also see more new and used aircraft sales in the GA market as increased training results in new pilots looking for flying machines. Without a doubt, sales in the corporate sector of the U.S. aviation market will continue the strong trends we have seen in 2014. So why do we all of this optimism after years of complaining?
In short, what was once the greatest nation on earth may have a functioning government for the first time in many years. Well, maybe that is a tad on the euphoric side, but at least the legislative side of things will improve. To be sure, the executive side of our government will most certainly continue with its focus on social reconstruction and expanded social services, remaining as hostile as ever to America’s aviation and science community. We will continue to see purely political appointments to federal agencies as the existing leaders of these posts start handing in resignations, a typical trend as the term of any president comes to a final end.
Executive orders and internal agency policies will probably continue the past trend of outright hostility towards business and general aviation, as we are perceived “one percenters” and continue to bare the blame for failed social change. Fortunately, the legislative side of our governing triad is on our side. Even in the darkest days of the economic collapse that started in 2008, Congress has strongly supported aviation laws that promote America’s aviation community. Even the senate has allowed some legislation to get through the highly contentious relationship that has existed between to the two houses.
As of 2015, America will finally have a Legislative branch of government that might just be willing to get back to the business of running a country, not simply staging public displays of schoolyard type squabbling and political posturing. And just to make it clear, that is a shot at all sides of the political spectrum. There are hundreds of bills and amendments waiting in the wings that are aimed at improving the economic environment in America, many of which will directly benefit the GA and business sectors of our flying community.
The air show season is starting strong. The Southeast Region is the big winner, with the U.S. Sport Aviation Expo in January (Sebring, Fla., with a special January distribution), the Helicopter International Association Convention in early March (Orlando, with our February issue distributed at the event) and Sun ‘n Fun in April (Lakeland, with our March and April issues covering the event). The Pacific Northwest Region is also scheduled for a big show in February, the Northwest Aviation Conference (Puyallup, Wash., featured in our January and February issues). Even Southern California gets an early start this year with a big trade show at Riverside Airport in March (getting February and March issue coverage). There are also numerous regional events taking place, ranging from local FBO-based programs to excellent presentations being made by the FAA Safety Team (www.faasafety.com). While most of these shows will brag about visitor attendance, it is the vender count that really speaks to the show’s success and the overall health of our aviation industry.
So far, vender activity appears to be up. 2015’s first major event, the U.S. Sport Aviation Expo, will be interesting to watch. Specializing in recreational and sport aviation activities, this show promotes the Sport Pilot certificate and aircraft that qualify as Light Sport Aircraft (LSA). This sector of recreational flying has seen good growth, even in the face of a very poor economic environment. It is estimated that some 6,000 Sport Pilots have been certified, and a larger but difficult to track number of contemporary pilots are now exercising the privileges of a Sport Pilot. Remember, the FAA tracks active pilot activity through the medical certificate process, and a contemporary pilot can simply let his/her medical expire and enter Sport Pilot flying without the FAA knowing anything about it.
The Sport Pilot rule has had a profound effect on how we view the troublesome medical certificate process, allowing thousands to simply drop out of a bureaucratic process that has no relevance with respect to aviation safety statistics. A pilot who acquires a third class medical certificate while under the age of 40 may now use the privileges of that medical for 60 months versus the 24-month limit of just a few years ago. This change was brought about by the success of the “non-medical” Sport Pilot. One of the important pieces of federal legislation now hanging fire is one that will virtually eliminate the third class medical requirement. The FAA will soon place their proposed rule that reduces the need for a third class medical back into the NPRM process.
The FAA version is quite complicated, with this writer hoping that Congress gets the job done first. Just for the record, this writer is certainly not against good health, but the third class medical certificate has become a little more than a process designed to keep a hugely expensive bureaucracy funded. It is time that the aviation and medical community stressed a “no fault” health program that truly focuses on healthy pilots, not simply regulations designed to increase cost and prevent healthy pilots from enjoying private flying. I tip my hat to the hundreds of Medical Examiners who have worked hand-in-hand with pilots battling the FAA medical structure to help keep these folks in the air, both healthy and safe.
And what about flight training? That is a big unknown. AOPA has known for years that “student starts” are the most important number we can look at in terms of forecasting GA health. To be sure, the expense of learning to fly is a big factor. The average Private Pilot certificate takes up to 70 hours to obtain, with an average cost ranging between $8,000 to $10,000. Sport Pilots are becoming pilots in as little as 30 hours flying time and at cost of $3,000 to $4,000. Is there a lesson here for flight training centers that have not yet engaged in Sport Pilot training? Remember, a Sport Pilot can easily upgrade to a full Private certificate at a later time, meaning a training center has the option to get new students started at a much lower cost, upgrading them to that “dream plane” later. Of course, the lack of S-LSA trainers is certainly an issue, which brings us back to U. S. Sport Aviation Expo, where prospective S-LSA purchasers can talk with manufactures and fly their offerings. This writer teaches Flight Instructor Refresher Clinics (FIRC’s) around the country, working with hundreds of CFI’s and FBO owners. It is distressing to see how many of these professionals know virtually nothing about the opportunities of Sport Pilot training or LSA type aircraft. Frankly, the LSA industry needs to do a better job in telling their story.
2015 will see a ramp up in attention to flight safety. In an unusual move, the FAA recently (last few months) required FIRC instructors to include a discussion about “loss of control” accidents. FIRC programs are certified and seldom changed in the middle of a two-year certification cycle. This category of accident has now taken over first place from CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain) accidents as the primary killer in aviation. In other words, more and more pilots are simply losing control of perfectly good airplanes, demonstrating poor flying skills and an over reliance on automated systems. Frankly, this does not come as a surprise to this writer, as the PTS (Practical Test Standards) for all ratings has continuously downgraded basic “stick and rudder” flying in favor of demonstrating skill with advanced avionics and testing designed to look into the psychology of flying.
Many DPEs (Designated Pilot Examiners) have long complained that they are being asked to play the role of psychologist, not that of DPE testing pilots in the skill of flying airplanes. As an active CFI and person who teaches weekend courses designed to help pilots pass written exams, this writer has met with more and more students who have never even seen or used a sectional chart of low altitude en-route chart. Everything is being done via advanced technology, either in the plane (after the radio master switch is turned on) or on a tablet. This is resulting in a significant lack of overall situational awareness. Many students are amazed when I pull out my personal DuraChart (www.durachart.com) and show them the big picture offered by a classic sectional. Perhaps we will see an emphasis on returning to good, old-fashion flying and navigational skills.
So what do we have as the New Year kicks off? Perhaps a functional government, better economy, a trend towards more user-friendly regulations, the potential of reduced training costs and an increased emphasis on flying safety. Not a bad starter kit. Let’s see if our legislators, the FAA, aviation businesses and you, the end user, can keep the momentum going.
